Guru #5

 

Are Canadian Politics Dull?

(A political science professor liked to tell his first year students that there was a key question about politics that they would have to answer. Which is correct: "Politics is dirty", or "Politics are dirty"? Leaving aside the question of whether I agree with the premise that politicians are crooks, I opt, on grammatical grounds, for the plural, "Politics are dirty".)

The Guru and I were on the Go Train from Toronto to Burlington having spent the day at the Metro Centre where the Guru had been judging an icewine competition.

I had driven us from Virgil to Burlington early in the morning so we could catch the Go Train and avoid the hassle of Toronto traffic and parking.

A reader of the Icewine Guru blog had asked me why the Guru and I hadn't yet talked about Canadian politics. Did we find it too dull? Or was it beneath us? So, I had suggested to the Guru that on our way home, we should spend some time chatting about Harper, McGuinty, Charest et. al. He agreed.

But first, I wanted to get a little update on how he thought the US presidential race was going.

"Very well!", he beamed.

" So", I asked, "you think that Obama's secret plan that I agreed not to write about (see Posting #4) is unfolding as you expected?"

"It is, but one thing that has surprised me a little is how quickly public anger about the income gap has turned into a protest movement. We talked about the income gap in mid-August but it wasn't on the radar of the mainstream media back then."

"Are you worried about criticism that there is no clear leadership for the movement and no clear statement of demands?"

"No, not at all. Are you", he asked me.

"No, I'm not. I've studied the history of social movements, and the ones that ultimately have a major impact often start off the way the Occupy Wall Street has. Over time, leaders emerge, and the demands become clarified. It is interesting that often movements throw up two leaders, one with strong views and good organizational skills, and the other with strong presentational and negotiating skills. There is often a tension between the two leaders but in successful movements they learn to work together. I'm waiting to see who will emerge."

"Good points. I agree with you. What do you think about the Republican primary battle?"

"I'm enjoying it", I replied, "I love to see two groups of greedoholics---to use your term---throwing their money around, the Wall Street one supporting Romney and the Energy one supporting Perry or Cain or whomever."

"It's getting nasty", the Guru chuckled. "The Sorcerer's Apprentice effect that I talked about back in August is driving the adult Republicans crazy. Funding the Tea Party helped the Republicans win the House of Representatives in 2010, but now the Tea Party crazies won't let the adult Republicans do what they must do to counter Obama's re-election strategy.  Jeb Bush, Karl Rove and others can see what is happening and but their protests aren't having any effect, at least for the moment."

"Yes", I added, "the Republicans should be trying to engineer a discreet flip-flop on their no-increase-in-revenue policy (that would of course have to be presented as something other than a flip-flop) but instead the crazies are trotting out flat tax proposals that are going to make the income gap worse. It's truly bizarre!"

"Agreed. Perhaps in one of our future conversations, we should discuss how one would go about reducing the income gap. It is not going to be easy."

"A good thought", I said, " but can we change the subject, and talk about Canadian politics. We have a fan of our blog who believes that we have been short-changing 'our home and native land'.

"Well, politics that spring from a philosophy of 'life, liberty and the pursuit of happiness' are almost certainly going to be more exciting than those that have their roots in 'peace, order and good government'. But we have had our moments, moments when Canadian politics were pretty damned exciting. Think of the War of 1812, the 1837 Rebellions, the Riel Rebellion, Conscription in both World Wars, the Quebec Separation movement."

"True, but at the moment there are no great issues dividing Canadians. The greedoholics tried to inject the virus of right-wing political philosophy into our discourse but I think the body politic is rejecting it. The Reform Party took over the Progressive Conservative Party but I sense that Harper's victory this year may be the high-water mark for the that mix of Ayn Rand, regional angst and evangelical religion. We are facing terrible international economic problems and challenging domestic problems such as the rising cost of health care and of other social programs. This is a time when the Canadian DNA calls for cooperation and negotiation, not my-way-or-the-highway."

"I agree", the Guru chimed in.

"What do you think of Harper?", I asked

"Well", the Guru responded, "I thought at one time that he had great potential but once he became Prime Minister I started to change my mind. I've now come to the conclusion that while he has some of the attributes of a successful Prime Minister he lacks some important qualities. He has ambition, stubbornness, a touch of paranoia and an authoritarian streak---it is tough to succeed in politics without those. But he doesn't, in my view, have a first class mind and the mind that he has is not well trained. He seems to have a disdain for facts, witness the stupid decision about the census forms, the decision to build more prisons despite statistics that show crime in Canada has been declining and that longer jail sentences have not worked in the States, and the decision to abolish the long gun registry, which the main users---the police---say has been working well."

"Yes", I added, "those decisions seem to have been made on ideological grounds, not on any analysis of the facts."

"In addition he appears to lack highly developed political antennae. How could a politician with any sense of what was going on in Toronto and Ontario publicly talk this summer about a likely 'trifecta' in which a Hudak victory would complete the sweep of elections by conservatives---Hudak, Rob Ford and himself? Rob Ford was so unpopular in the Greater Toronto Area, that Harper's remark helped re-elect Dalton McGuinty."

"Are you worried about the legislative changes he can make in the next four years with a majority government", I asked.

"A little bit, but the provinces will limit his actions in key areas like health care. But his biggest problem is that he is trying to run everything from the Prime Minister's Office, because he doesn't trust his ministers or the public service.  As I've said, a little bit of paranoia and a little touch of authoritarianism are necessary in a PM but he is showing too much of each. John Diefenbaker and Brian Mulroney suffered from the same problem and tried to run things from the PMO. Look what happened to them---huge majorities followed by humbling defeats. No one can run a modern government with all its complexities from the Prime Minister's office. Serious mistakes are inevitable. As his popularity polls drop, and as we get closer to the next election, enemies in his party will start to conspire against him."

"A Tory 'Night of the Long Knives'?"

"That's it, and Harper will either be deposed or badly wounded. The new Prime Minister will be from either the Liberal Party or the NDP, most likely from the former. I have no idea who the Prime Minister will be but someone will emerge."

"So, you're saying, Guru, that anyone who thinks that Canadian politics are dull should just wait until the knives come out?"

"Exactly!"

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If you have any comments, please leave them below or drop me a line at johnpathunter@gmail.com. The next Icewine Guru posting will appear in the fullness of time. My other blog, The Letter from Virgil, (http://letterfromvirgil.blogspot.com/) appears every Sunday morning.