Guru #4

 

Is Obama a Wimp?

The Guru and I were in his winery's bottling room gluing labels on his attractive, dark green 375 ml icewine bottles.

"Those damn people at the Liquor Board held up the bottling by three weeks", he complained as we readied the bottles to go under the filling spout.

He explained that the wineries can't print their labels, which have to show the alcohol content, until the Board has tested and ruled on the amount of alcohol in the wine.

"My lab equipment is as good as theirs, in fact it's probably better, and I knew it was 11.4%. But I couldn't get the labels printed until I had their results---which came in at exactly 11.4%. I can see the need for government testing to keep everyone honest, but why should it take three weeks?"

After we had finished bottling ten cases, we sat at a table in the sunny lab, overlooking his vineyard. He poured glasses of a charming Riesling wine---not icewine---from a neighbouring winery and we began to talk.

"What happened to that Op-Ed you were going to send to the New York Times on community employment programs?", he asked.

"They told me that they get dozens of Op-Eds a day and they can't print them all, etc. etc. etc. Nice letter, though."

"What did you think of Obama's Jobs Act?", he asked.

"I liked it, especially the component for summer jobs for youth. And I liked how he plans to pay for it, with revenue from the wealthiest. But he's taking a beating from both the left and the right. All those claims that he's a wimp."

"He's no wimp. It's just that people don't understand his secret strategy for re-election."

"And you do?"

"Of course." The Guru is nothing if not self-confident.

"Could you explain it to me?"

"I will but first you will have to promise not to publish it in that blog you're writing. You don't have a large readership (not like my monthly newsletter!) but I would hate to have someone leak the strategy to Obama's enemies. I want to see him re-elected, not because I like him particularly---I never got caught up in the Obama frenzy---and not because I like the Democrats, a hapless lot most of the time. But because he seems to be the only adult in Washington, and the only person who fully understands the danger of the income gap. So don't publish, OK?"

"Agreed."

I am used to being amazed at the Guru's capacity for analysis and exposition but the next 15 minutes left me in awe.

"It's a brilliant strategy, but will it work?", I asked.

"That's hard to say, it depends on the greedoholics"

(In Posting #1 in this blog, the Guru defined what he means by the word 'greedoholic': "That's what I call the billionaires and special interest groups who are so hooked on greed that they have lost all sight of what is good for the country---if they ever had it. And they have also lost sight of what is in their own self-interest as capitalists, but they are too hooked on greed to see that."

( Later, I asked him this question: "You aren't saying, of course, that all wealthy people are greedoholics?"

(And he replied: "No, certainly not. Take Warren Buffett. He has a good bit of greed about him but you wouldn't see him upgrading his yacht (if he had one) because it has just one heliport and he needs 'his and her' helicopters, like the hedge fund manager he plays golf with. I think Buffett is sincere when he complains about a tax system that means his secretary pays federal tax at a higher effective rate than he does. He's a Democrat but there are wealthy Republics who aren't greedoholics---some of them are my clients---who understand that the income gap is dangerous, but they are afraid to stand up to the greedoholics. It's sad---they know that an income gap this huge is bad for the country and bad for capitalism.")

(Although he didn't name any of the greedoholics he is worried about I think it is clear that the brothers whose family name sounds like a popular drink would be included.)

The Guru continued, "The greedoholics  have many advantages---we've talked about that before---and the economic situation inside and outside the US is so bleak that even a brilliant strategy may not be enough. But think of Eisenhower on June 5th 1944 as he pondered what would happen the next day when hundreds of thousands of troops would cross the English Channel and try to invade France. He had put together a daring and ambitious invasion plan but so much could go wrong. But it turned out well. Success has to start with a clear goal and a brilliant plan, and I think Obama and his people have both of those."

"Is there anything at all that I can tell my readers?", I asked.

"Well let's see. You could tell them to study Sun Tzu, and also read up on the Ground Sparrow".

"I'm not sure that would be very helpful to my readers, as intelligent and discerning as they are. Can you elucidate a bit, without giving away the essential features of the strategy? Perhaps by starting with Sun Tzu and his "The Art of War", which I know you keep on your bedside table."

"Well, Obama's strategy that I just outlined shows that Obama has read and absorbed "The Art of War". Let me choose one lesson that your readers might like to think about. Sun Tzu argued back in about 400 BC that a wise general will always choose the battlefield that he wants to fight on, not the one his enemies want him to fight on. Now, think about Obama and how he bypassed several possible battlefields, for example the Republican threats to close down the government in December 2010 and April this year, or the Debt Ceiling issue in August. His enemies taunted him and tried to get him to fight on those battlefields. Instead, he compromised and his enemies and even some of his allies called him weak, and a wimp."

"You talk about 'his enemies'. Who are you referring to?"

"Oh, the greedoholics, they have the money, and they pull the strings. Not the Republicans, they do what the greedoholics tell them. By the way, isn't it tragic to see some of the 'adult' Republicans being forced to grovel and recant by the greedoholics. As for the Tea Party members, they are unwitting pawns of the greedoholics."

"So, if the greedoholics are the enemy, are you saying that Obama's goal is not just to win re-election but to trounce the greedoholics?"

"That's it. The US can't begin to correct the income gap until the greedoholics are beaten, or at least have their wings clipped."

"So that brings us back to the questions of a battlefield. Are you saying that Obama has chosen a battlefield?'

"Yes, and he's fighting on it right now. The Jobs Act, the components of which the majority of Americans support, is part of it. The other part consists of the deficit and debt proposals set out in his speech in the Rose Garden on Monday this week, in which he said that he will veto any deficit/debt plan that doesn't include tax increases on the wealthy.  That's again a policy that most Americans support."

"That's not a battlefield that the greedoholics would have chosen, some pretty tough terrain for them." I added.

"Exactly, and that's why you see such weak, ineffectual attacks on Obama's proposals. 'The plan is too large' or 'It's just another stimulus program', or "It's class warfare'---the last from people who have been stealing money for years from the working and middle classes through lobbyist-inspired tax loopholes and concessions!"

"But aren't some Democratic representatives and senators opposing Obama's proposals?"

"The greedoholics are powerful, and it is understandable that some Democrats are frightened of, or beholden to them."   

"How long will the battle last, do you think?", I asked.

"That's the beauty of this as the battlefield. The greedoholics could decide in the next few months that they are being beaten and decide to retreat to fight another day. The Obama proposals could then be adopted by Congress, which would be good for the country---and by the way, give him a victory he could take into the election. It is more likely that the greedoholics will see the proposals as the thin edge of the wedge and opt to battle them right to the election in the hope that they can defeat Obama."

"And by that time", I added, "you hope that the American people will have made a choice about what kind of country they want. And the battle will have stripped away the camouflage and the subterfuges that the greedoholics have used, thus permitting the public to see how they have been manipulated by people who are only interested in lining their own pockets. "

"That has to be Obama's hope. But the greedoholics are tough, with tubs of money and many influential allies, so the battle could go either way. Closer to the election, I will be warning my readers that if Obama loses the election, the 'lame duck' period from November 6th to the inauguration of a Republican president on January 20th, 2013 is very likely to be a time of great social unrest."

"That's a sobering thought. So, getting back to what I can report in the blog, I will not discuss what you covered in our private talk but will cover the conversation we just had. OK?"

"Agreed".

"Now what's this about the Ground Sparrow?"

" When I was a kid, there was a vacant field next to our home. Sometimes when my friends and I walked through the field a little sparrow would appear and then limp ahead of us. Thinking it was injured, we at first tried to catch it to help it by fixing its wing or its leg. But it always stayed just a little ahead of us. After we had gone a hundred yards or so, it would fly away, in a perfectly healthy way. We learned that the Ground Sparrow, the Killdeer and some ducks use this ruse to lure people away from their nests and fledglings."

"So what does that have to do with Obama?"

"Think! What is Obama's most important legislative achievement, his baby, his fledgling?"

 "The health care reform."

"Exactly, and 'his baby' is getting stronger by the day, with regulations being developed, agreements with states and insurers being formed, and so on. All of this while Congress is being distracted by discussions of debt, deficit and jobs."

"So you don't think Obama is a wimp?"

"Like a fox!"

"I hope you are right, but even foxes sometimes get outwitted."

"We'll just have to see, won't we?"

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If you have any comments, please leave them below or drop me a line at johnpathunter@gmail.com. The Icewine Guru postings will appear from time to time---when I have something on my mind. The Letter from Virgil postings (http://letterfromvirgil.blogspot.com/) appear weekly, on Sunday mornings.