POSTING #14

The Icewine Guru is Depressed

Gloria and I had been out of town for a week. When we got back I called the Guru to get his latest views on the US presidential election.

“To tell the truth”, he said, “I’m feeling a little depressed about it.”

“What”, I sputtered, “You no longer think Obama is going to win, probably by a landslide?”

“No, no, he’ll win, and he’ll win big. My problem is that I have spent 2 or 3 years worrying about how and whether Obama could accomplish his two goals: first, being re-elected and secondly, restoring the Republican Party to its adults. It is clear to me that he is well on his way to accomplishing both goals. He will of course make some mistakes in his second term but his ideas and instincts are just what the US and the world need right now. We will see four years of great progress on the big issues of: debt/deficit, employment, health care, inequality and climate. I need another big problem that I can get my teeth into, and I am having trouble finding one. That’s why I’m feeling a bit depressed.”

“But isn't it a bit optimistic to believe that the GOP in Congress is going to roll over and allow him to pass solutions to the problems you mentioned?”

“I don’t think so. Here is what I think will happen between the end of the election and Inauguration Day on January 20, 2013. I may have some of the details wrong but I believe the substance is right. The CEOs of the major businesses in the US will jet into Washington for a meeting with key representatives of four groups: the Congressional GOP leadership; the conservative media, including Fox owner Rupert Murdoch; conservative think tanks, and K Street lobbyists. They will start off by saying something like this: ‘Aren’t you a sorry bunch of losers!  We gave you all that money and you couldn’t beat Obama despite all the economic problems the country is facing. You should be hanging your heads in shame. Now, listen up. Here is how you are going to behave between now and the Inauguration, and for the next four years.

1. You are going to accept that Obama has won, and is our only president for the next 4 years. There will be no secret meetings to plan strategies to obstruct the President. The problems facing the country and the world are too serious for childish games.
2. You will comport yourselves as a Loyal Opposition---that’s the term used in a Parliamentary System for the opposition party, You can question proposed policies but you always have to remember that you have to be Loyal: to the constitution; to the nation; to all its people (not just the 1%); and, to the facts (accept that Charles Darwin was right, that Keynes was right, and---suck it up---that Al Gore was right).
3. You are going to solve ‘The Cliff Problem’ before January 1st in a balanced way that gradually brings the debt and deficit problems under control but does not jeopardize the fragile economic recovery and does not worsen the social inequality that now exists.
4. If you choose not to do what we have asked, the following will happen. Campaign contributions to the GOP will be cut dramatically; advertising dollars to the conservative media will be cut severely, and funds for right-wing think tanks and lobbyists will be dealt with in the same way. In addition, there will be no cushy, well-paid jobs for any of you in our companies after your stints in Washington. Now get back to your offices and get to work. And remember the old army maxim: ‘Lead, follow, or get the hell out of the way’.”

“I’m impressed”, I said. “You rattled off all stuff without seeming to take a breath.”

“It’s all from my next newsletter that I have just finished. It’s fresh in my mind. “

“Well, I hope that prediction is as prescient as the ones you have been making about how this election campaign would unfold.”

“When both the public and the corporate community are fed up with Washington, great things can happen.”

“I agree, the political environment is ripe for problem solving.”

“Look", the Guru said, “about my depression and a new problem for me to gnaw on, I have been thinking about making it the future of China. Your son is still in Shanghai with that Canadian Bank?”

“He is. And I am sure that he and his Chinese-born wife would be delighted to help you with background information on China.”

“Great! Let me think some more about it. Perhaps you and your wife could accompany me and my wife to China on a fact-finding mission. No country, apart from the US, is going to be as important as China in the coming decades. And no country has bigger economic, social, climate and governance problems as it tries to deal with 1.3 billion people all of whom have rising expectations.”

“Let me know how your thinking evolves. We would certainly be game for a mission like that.”

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If you have any comments, please leave them below or drop me a line at johnpathunter@gmail.com. The next Icewine Guru posting will appear in the fullness of time. My other blog, The Letter from Virgil, (http://letterfromvirgil.blogspot.com/)  appears on a more regular basis.

POSTING #13

The US Presidential Election Campaign’s VP Debate 

The Guru called me from the Buffalo Airport where he was waiting for the arrival of his wife, Gloria, who had been visiting their daughter.

“Well,” I asked, “what did you think of the debate between Biden and Ryan?’

“Oh, damn, they’ve just announced that Gloria’s plane is going to arrive early. Would you and Paula be free tonight to drop over for coffee and dessert around 8 PM so we can hash over the debate?

“Sure we can make that, but in the meantime have you got time to give me a quick summary?’

“OK, let me read the points I’ve just finished for my next newsletter:

1. As we expected after Romney’s abominable behaviour at the first presidential debate, it wasn’t a debate, it was a brawl---a school yard brawl presided over by the stern-looking school marm, Martha Raddatz.

2. Again as we expected, Ryan would follow the tactic used by Romney in his two-minute responses to questions. He spent his first 10 seconds responding to the moderator’s question and then launched into a series of lies and misrepresentations that Biden could not possibly deal with in his 2 minute response time.(By the way, a friend tells me that this tactic was specifically banned from his college debating club.)

3. Biden was ready for the tactic and opted to fight fire with fire, by going rogue himself. He made derisory faces and gestures while Ryan talked, interrupted him and threw out comments like ‘malarkey’ and ‘stuff’.

4. And Biden used every opportunity to introduce embarrassing references to things like the 47% comment, and letters from Ryan begging for stimulus funds.

5. I chuckled when Ryan asked him not to interrupt. But Biden carried on, with a smile, as though saying ‘You want to brawl, that works for me.’

6. Martha Raddatz seemed to recognize the game Ryan was playing and allowed Biden a good bit of leeway. But she threatened the two of them with her ruler when things started to get out of hand.

7. And she asked pointed follow-up questions when one of them waffled on what she deemed an important issue.

8. I hope Candy Crawley copies Martha’s approach in the next presidential debate. That should give Obama the scope he needs to respond to Romney’s attacks.

9. John Garner, VP under FDR, famously said that ‘the vice-presidency isn’t worth a bucket of warm piss’, but Biden showed that if you add a little vinegar you can clean a clock or two.

10. Now, it is up to Obama. We know that he is competitive under the basketball net. We can expect to see him show that same 'hustle' in exposing Romney's lies and misrepresentations.

“Gloria’s plane has just arrived. See you tonight.”

“That’s good stuff! See you at 8.”

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If you have any comments, please leave them below or drop me a line at johnpathunter@gmail.com. The next Icewine Guru posting will appear in the fullness of time. My other blog, The Letter from Virgil,   appears on a more regular basis.

POSTING #12

After the First Debate of the US Presidential Election Campaign

The Guru and I were driving to Grimsby, with the Guru at the wheel, so he could deliver some bottles of his best icewine for a silent auction being held by the Auxiliary of the West Lincoln Memorial Hospital. His family and mine use the Emergency Service at the hospital from time to time (it is small, personal and professional). We like to support it, through gifts and contributions.

Traffic was light on the Queen Elizabeth Way and I thought it wouldn’t distract the Guru too much if I asked for his views on the first debate of the US Presidential Election held in Denver on October 3rd. I prompted him by saying, “The pundits seem unanimous that Romney won the debate. What do you think?”

“The first thing is that it wasn’t a ‘debate’. Obama and Jim Lehrer were prepared for a debate, for a serious discussion of the different policy positions the two camps have taken over the last 18 months. But Romney wasn’t. He used the debate as an ‘etch-a-sketch’ moment in which he would reject his prior extremist right-wing policy arguments and use lies and misrepresentations to deny that he had flip-flopped. He turned the debate into a no-holds-barred brawl. It was as though Obama had come for a boxing match that would be conducted in accordance with the Marquess of Queensbury rules but Romney had come for a bout of ‘dirty fighting’ in which everything was going to be allowed---hitting below the belt, eye gouging, choking, whatever.”

“And the pundits love nothing better than a brawl, so they reported it as a brawl, not as a debate---and they scored the brawl as a win for Romney.”

“Exactly. But I believe it will prove to be a Pyrrhic victory. If Romney felt he needed to have a no-rules brawl, he should have waited until the last of the three debates. Obama would once again have been taken by surprise, would not have responded well and the voters would have gone to the polls thinking that he was some kind of wimp.”

“But”, I said, “Romney couldn’t wait until the third debate. His financial backers were deserting him and the morale of the GOP was sinking fast.”

“That’s it. So he struck without warning, catching Obama and Lehrer off guard. And he got an easy victory but his actions mean that the next two debates will have to be brawls. Think about what that means! If you were going to challenge a person from any city in the US to have a brawl with, which city would be the last on your list?

“Chicago, of course---they perfected brawling.”

“But I don’t think that Obama will come out with palpable lies and misrepresentations of the sort Romney used. Remember he spent part of his youth in Asia. I expect to see him use judo techniques in which the strength of the opponent is used against him. Romney will swing at him with some bald-faced lie and he will suddenly find himself lying on his back. At least I hope that is how the next debates will go.”

“So”, I injected, “you see him lying on his back instead of lying on his feet, as is his wont? Sorry about that! But seriously,  I suppose you would argue that by using judo techniques, he will be seen as taking the high ground.”

“Sure, the American people aren't stupid. They know that Romney played dirty and that it is OK for Obama to strike back. But he should strike back with finesse, pointing out not only Romney’s mendacity but also his attempt to conceal embarrassing specifics. And remember, there is always the big elephant in the room---Romney’s tax returns. I hope that Obama will end the next debate by looking at the camera (at the American people) and saying something like this. ‘My opponent has changed his positions, swinging as one of his primary opponent said, like a well-oiled weather vane. You need to ask whether he has any core values, any core at all. If elected will he bow to every extremist faction in his party. But worse than that, he is concealing crucial information from you. You have to ask why he is refusing to release more than two years of tax returns---what is hidden there that he doesn’t want you to know. Why he is refusing to come clean about the tax cuts he will make, why he is refusing to be specific about his Medicare changes (and on and on). Mr. Romney if you have any respect for the American people you will reveal all of this information before the next debate. ”

“Well”, I said, “I hope you are right. The polls are scaring me---I am afraid that we will see a return to Bush-Cheney, only, as Bill Clinton has said, on steroids.”

“Stay calm, and remember the worst doesn’t always happen.”

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If you have any comments, please leave them below or drop me a line at johnpathunter@gmail.com. The next Icewine Guru posting will appear in the fullness of time. My other blog, The Letter from Virgil, appears on a more regular basis.